2019 Lake Superior hurricane season
The 2019 Lake Superior hurricane season is a current event that started on May 1, 2019 and will end on December 15, 2019. The season will be the fourth to have named storms live on Hypothetical Events. Season predictions The first prediction of the season came from the TornadoGenius Meteorological Center, which predicted an above average season. On January 3, 2019, the Weather Center of Buddhaland predicted an above average season as well, with 17-19 named storms. On April 27, 2019, just before the season began, SDTWFC predicted 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. On May 4, not too long after SDTWFC released their prediction, the TGMC revised their outlook, revising it down to an average season, rather than an active season. On June 9, 2019, due to a developing Hé Wičhíŋčala, which lessens activity in Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, and Lake Ontario, the Weather Center of Buddhaland revised their prediction to 15-17 named storms. A Hé Wičhíŋčala results in an active season for Lake Superior and Lake Erie. Storms ImageSize = width:700 height:200 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/05/2019 till:01/09/2019 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/05/2019 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<39_mph_(0-62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39-73_mph_(63-117 km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74-95_mph_(119-153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96-110_mph_(154-177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111-130_mph_(178-209-km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_131-155_mph_(210-249_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_156+_mph_(250+_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:28/05/2019 till:30/05/2019 color:TD text:One-S from:06/06/2019 till:13/06/2019 color:C4 text:Ben from:20/07/2019 till:21/07/2019 color:TS text:Cara bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/05/2019 till:01/06/2019 text:May from:01/06/2019 till:01/07/2019 text:June from:01/07/2019 till:01/08/2019 text:July from:01/08/2019 till:01/09/2019 text:August Tropical Depression One-S On May 26, a tropical wave developed over the Apostle Islands, quickly developing as it approached the Michigan Peninsula. Later that day, it was invested as Invest 91S, with a 70% chance of development. Chances were upped the next day to 90%, and the storm developed into Tropical Depression One-S on May 28. The next day, as One-S was nearing the Michigan Peninsula, it began to weaken due to shear, nearly ripping apart the system. A tropical storm watch was placed for areas between Freda and Eagle River, Michigan, not guaranteeing a tropical storm to make landfall. Two-S weakened to a 30-mph system later that day, and made landfall not too far north of Freda, Michigan. Due to the slow movement of the storm, some flooding occurred, including the highest total from the storm being 8.5 inches of rain in Boston, Michigan. On May 30, One-S dissipated without becoming a tropical storm. Hurricane Ben On June 1, a tropical wave exited the coast of Duluth, moving slowly to the east. This tropical wave brought flooding in the Apostle Islands, and later, on June 4, brought heavy rain to the Keweenaw Peninsula. Finally, after exiting the Keweenaw Peninsula, the wave became Invest 92S, moving to east-southeast. Then, on the morning of June 6, the storm developed into Tropical Depression Two-S, after being re-designated due to Subtropical Storm Abigail's downgrade to an extratropical cyclone. Due to very conducive conditions for tropical cyclone development, rapid intensification began to occur. At 11:00 am on June 6, the storm was named Ben, with winds of 50 mph and a pressure of 999 millibars. Due to continued rapid intensification, Ben intensified 30 mph in 3 hours, one of the fastest intensification periods on record. At 2 pm (EDT) on June 6, Ben was 80 mph and 988 millibars, becoming the first hurricane of the season. Later that day, Ben became a Category 2 hurricane, with winds of 100 mph and a pressure of 980 millibars. Simultaneously, Michipicoten Island was placed under a hurricane warning. Although slowing down, quick intensification continued to occur overnight into June 7, with winds of 110 mph and a pressure of 969 millibars being recorded from a reconnaissance flight. Due to the frequent investigations of the storm, the Great Lakes Hurricane Center had to use its second emergency recon base in Marquette for updated information every 3 hours. The next morning, Ben became the first major hurricane of the season, nearing Michipicoten Island as it was moving east-northeast. At 5:00 am (EDT) on June 7, Hurricane Ben reached winds of 125 mph, with intensification slowing down, although still present. Just 6 hours later, Ben became a Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 130 mph. At the exact same moment, the hurricane warning for Michipicoten Island was extended to include the Wawa area. Throughout the rest of the day, Ben went through a brief eyewall replacement cycle, which didn't affect the strengthening routine as much as it would normally do. At 11:00 pm (EDT) on June 7, Ben reached winds of 140 mph with a pressure of 943 millibars, with a small rise in pressure. However, in the next full advisory at 5:00 am (EDT) on June 8, Ben reached its peak intensity at 145 mph and 931 millibars, quickly approaching Michipicoten Island, which was the area Ben was forecast to make landfall on June 9. Preparations for landfall were made, and the island's small population was evacuated by noon on June 8. On June 9, Ben began to weaken, and eventually lost its eye by 11:00 am (EDT), just as it was making landfall in Michipicoten Island with winds of 115 mph. Ben was the first major hurricane landfall on the island in more than ten years. Many trees were snapped or uprooted, but no fatalities occurred, due to the island's population being evacuated to Ontario the day before. About an hour after moving off Michipicoten Island, Ben scraped Ontario as a low-end Category 2 hurricane, weakening below major hurricane status. Many features in the Pukaskwa National Park were minorly damaged by wind gusts of 100-110 mph. After weakening over land, and now cooler SSTs, Ben became a Category 1 hurricane at the 11:00 pm advisory on June 9, and gradually continued to weaken on June 10. On June 11, tropical storm watches were in effect for areas between Marathon and Terrace Bay, and Ben then weakened into a tropical storm due to very cool SSTs. On June 12, Ben made landfall in a sparsely populated area, causing minimal damage and no fatalities, dissipating by the next day. Overall, damages from Ben amounted up to $50 million (2019 USD) and only two fatalities occurred. Tropical Storm Cara On July 16, a tropical wave formed off the coast of Duluth. This storm rapidly developed, without a closed center of circulation, as it moved northeast, toward the Keweenaw Peninsula. Over the next few days, this became Invest 94S, with winds of 45 mph. On July 20, this was designated as Tropical Storm Cara, and was expected to rapidly intensify as it moved out into open waters of Lake Superior. Cara, with continuing rapid intensification, reached winds of 60 mph by 11:00 pm (EDT) on July 20, further strengthening to 70 mph and developing a mid-level eye just 24 hours after its designation. Due to strong rip currents, beaches on the Keweenaw Peninsula were closed due to the life-threatening conditions. Swells of up to 15 feet were recorded off the coast of Isle Royale that evening. Storm names This will be the first time that these names are used in the basin. Names that are not retired will be used again in 2025. Before the season, the name "Alberta" was retired due to political reasons with the country of Canada. It was replaced with Abigail before the beginning of the season. (Note: Abigail was downgraded to an extratropical cyclone in post-analysis.) Category:Hurricanes in Lake Superior Category:2019 Lake Superior hurricane season Category:Events in the 2010s Category:Hypothetical Events Category:Hypothetical Hurricanes